The AI Futures Project is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit research organization (EIN 99-4320292). We have developed a scenario forecast detailing the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI). Based on our research, we’ve come to believe that we might cross the thresholds to AGI and ASI within just a few years—and that plausible outcomes include unprecedented concentration of power, global catastrophe, or progress and flourishing.

The world is not ready for such a radical transformation. We hope to help policymakers, AI companies, AI entrepreneurs, AI safety researchers, and the general public to make sense of what’s coming, so they can take action and steer us in a better direction. In addition to our scenario forecast, we are developing policy recommendations and tabletop exercises (wargames) for decisionmakers.

Our scenario is highly specific. Any such specific forecast will inevitably be inaccurate. We strive to provide the most accurate possible scenario, given that it is highly specific. Based on trend extrapolations, expert opinions, and informed guesses, we provide concrete, tangible stories that we can use to reason intuitively about what the future might look like.